Mosby-There’s a Hole in Your Armor: Overcoming the Threat of Groupthink in the Tribal Construct

 The term “groupthink” was coined in 1952 by William Whyte, Jr, in an article for Fortune Magazine. In 1972, social psychologist Irving Janis produced what is generally recognized as the essential work on groupthink entitled Victims of Groupthink. In it, Janis traced the phenomenon in foreign policy fiascos, ranging from Pearl Harbor to the Vietnam War. Janis pointed out that the problems arose in foreign policy when the policy making insiders, who prized their membership in the elite circles more than the quality of outcomes from their decision-making, remained silent, rather than voicing their doubts or disagreements rather than making waves.

A more recent example of the same problems can be seen illustrated in Robert Jervis’ book Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War. Jervis discusses the fact that the US government spends massive amounts of money on gathering and analyzing intelligence, and still suffers catastrophic failures as the end product remains a flawed and imperfect thing. Analysts are influenced and corrupted by political influence, poor decision-making, stovepiping of information, and epic levels of groupthink at multiple levels.


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